Beschäftigungsstabilität im Konjunkturzyklus – Eine empirische Analyse mit Individualdaten für Westdeutschland 1984-2005

In recent years, the long-run development of job stability has been of considerable interest in empirical economic research resulting in a large number of published studies. However, these studies do not deliver a clear result. Some studies report on a decline of job stability, whereas other studies do not nd any change or describe an increase in job security. These ambiguous ndings suggest that job stability does not necessarily follow a long-run trend, but could also be subject to cyclical effects if job mobility is different in economic up- and downturns. Studies that try to investigate the impact of the business cycle on job stability are rare and mostly rely on aggregate data. Yet, with this type ofdata only differences in job stability during booms and recessions can be described, but it is not possible to establish a causal relationship. Therefore, we use micro-level data of the GSOEP to estimate the effect of the economic cycle on job stability in West Germany over the period from 1984 to 2005. We use individual tenure to measure job stability. Our results show that the business cycle has a signicant impact on job durations. In economic upturns job stability of men and women rises. However, with increasing duration of the upturn men experience a reverse effect and the risk of job termination starts to rise due to the high growth rates of the early upturn periods. During a recession job stability declines for both men and women. Similarly to the upturn, the effect for men is attenuated after some duration of the downturn.

Hübler, Olaf and Thomas Walter (2008), Beschäftigungsstabilität im Konjunkturzyklus – Eine empirische Analyse mit Individualdaten für Westdeutschland 1984-2005, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 08-103, Mannheim.