An Analysis of Selected Labor Market Outcomes of College Dropouts in Germany – A Machine Learning Estimation Approach

In this study, we investigate the labor market effects induced by dropping out of college without a degree. In 2016, a share of 78.3% of employed individuals with a college entrance qualification, and aged between 25 and 65, has been enrolled in college once in their lifetime. Amongst these individuals, 20.5% had dropped out of college without obtaining a formal degree. The focus of the (longitudinal) study described in the following is the investiga-tion of the main effects of college dropout on employment, wages, and occupa-tional position, using a data set consisting of employed individuals aged be-tween 25 and 65 in 2016 who possess college entrance qualification. In this paper, selected labor market outcomes are compared exploiting a conditional-on-observables identification strategy and using a machine learning eEstimation approach.

Heigle, Julia and Friedhelm Pfeiffer (2019), An Analysis of Selected Labor Market Outcomes of College Dropouts in Germany – A Machine Learning Estimation Approach, Research Report, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), Mannheim