Political Consequences of (Consumer) Debt Relief

Many governments operate consumer debt relief programs, often timed to match the election cycle, but their political effects are not well understood. We ask if debt relief can influence elections in democracies. Our motivating exercise is the Biden administration’s promise to relieve student debt. We utilize quasi-experimental variation generated by another very large debt relief program enacted in the Republic of Georgia that, similar to USA, affected every sixth voter. We estimate that the program helped the incumbent candidate win that election, and that its effects persisted. Overall, we show how economic power can translate into political power in democracies.

Aidt, Toke, Zareh Asatryan and Lusine Badalyan (2024), Political Consequences of (Consumer) Debt Relief, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 24-030, Mannheim.