Natural Gas Expected to Replace Nuclear Energy in Germany
ResearchThe contentious discussion on the German nuclear phase-out, which has flared up again over the past weeks, shows that the debate on this issue is far from over. Given the 28 per cent share of nuclear energy in German energy generation, one question repeatedly arises: how to cover energy demand after shutting down nuclear power plants?
The majority of experts surveyed in the framework of the current ZEW Energy Market Barometer expect "grey" scenarios with dominating traditional energy sources and electricity imports, whereas a substantial minority considers "green" scenarios to be possible as well, in the course of which gas plants and renewables, in particular, replace nuclear energy.
The Energy Market Barometer by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, is a biannual survey conducted among more than 200 experts from the scientific sphere, energy supply companies, energy-trading companies, and energy service providers, who are asked to give their expectations concerning short and medium-term developments on national and international energy markets. The participants were to choose one of these five alternatives to nuclear energy: gas power stations, coal-fired power plants, renewables, energy-saving measures, or energy imports. As shown in the current ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a large majority of 46 per cent primarily opts for the construction of gas-fired plants to make up for the loss of nuclear power plant capacities.
However, when asked about combining the increased use of gas with another energy source or measure in the future, the experts' opinions diverge. About 31 per cent consider the combination of gas and coal to be a primary alternative. More than 20 per cent see gas plants and energy imports as most probable measures. After all, more than 15 per cent assume that a combination of gas and renewable energies will mainly replace nuclear energy.
The results suggest that, apparently, the experts' estimations are based on "grey" and "green" expectations. The combination of coal and gas can be referred to as "grey" nuclear energy replacement scenario. Combining gas and renewables, on the other hand, may be labelled "green" strategy. At the same time, the study illustrates that virtually no one considers a combination of coal-fired power plants and renewable energies very likely. Technically speaking, there would be little point in opting for this combination since a rising share of renewables tends to involve temporary fluctuations in energy generation. These fluctuations can best be offset by means of flexible gas power stations instead of coal, medium and base load power plants.
The "grey" scenario (i. e. the extension of coal and gas-fired power plants) is possibly based on the consideration that only today's economical technologies are believed capable of putting up with the immense capacity shortage resulting from the nuclear phase-out without threatening energy supply. The expectations of a "green" replacement scenario probably derive from the latest decisions on renewable energies and the nuclear phase-out. Assuming that the nuclear phase-out is to be completed by 2020, about 28 per cent of Germany's total electricity generation need be replaced until then. A major share of nuclear energy could be covered by expanding the use of renewable energies from today's 10 per cent to 20 per cent in 2020. This expansion is best combined with the construction of new gas power stations. Natural gas plays a key role in the energy policy debate because it is part of both, "grey" and "green" energy strategies and thus represents, at least to some extent, a consensus in energy policy.
The EU and Germany, in particular, depend on energy imports. That is why changes to the energy mix, for example by significantly expanding gas-power plants as expected, will not remain without consequence. About 83 per cent of the experts assume that Germany's economic dependency on natural gas will rise over the next five years. By contrast, only 60 per cent expect this to be the case in the USA. A very different picture is painted in terms of crude oil. For Germany, approximately 47 per cent forecast rising and about 40 per cent stagnating economic dependency on oil. With regard to the USA, however, a clear majority of almost 73 per cent expects the dependency on crude oil to increase. German economic dependencies grow slower than those in the USA. This may reflect the expectations according to which German efforts to force back the dominance of oil are actually considered to have a certain chance of success.
Contact
Dr Ulf Moslener, E-mail: moslener@zew.de