Strong Decline in Economic Sentiment

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in June 2019, and now stands at minus 21.1 points. This corresponds to a drop of 19.0 points compared to the previous month. The indicator’s long-term average is 22.0 points. Over the same period, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany slightly worsened by 0.4 points, with the corresponding indicator falling to a current reading of 7.8 points. The economic outlook for Germany is therefore similarly negative as it was in the last quarter of 2018.

 “The sharp drop in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment coincides with an increased uncertainty regarding the future development of the global economy and substantially worsened figures for the German economy at the beginning of the second quarter. The intensification of the conflict between the USA and China, the increased risk of a military conflict in the Middle East and the higher probability of a no-deal Brexit are all casting a shade on the global economic outlook. On top of this, German industry has been reporting worse than expected figures for production, exports and retail sales for April,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

The financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development of the eurozone also experienced a significant drop, with the corresponding indicator currently standing at minus 20.2 points, 18.6 points below the reading from the previous month. By contrast, the indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone climbed 3.3 points to a level of minus 3.7 points in June.

More information and studies on the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment and the release dates 2019 (as PDF file, 28 KB) and the historical time series (as Excel file, 81 KB)