1. Discussion and Working Paper // 2024

    Impact of the US Presidential Race on the German Economy: Insights from Professional Forecasters

    This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters’ views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Our analysis is based on recent data from the…

  2. Discussion and Working Paper // 2024

    Targeted bidders in government tenders

    A set-aside promotes a more equitable procurement process by restricting participation in government tenders to small or disadvantaged businesses. Yet its micro-effects on tender outcomes (competition and…

  3. Discussion and Working Paper // 2024

    Procuring Survival

    We investigate the impact of public procurement on business survival. Using Italy as a laboratory, we construct a large-scale dataset of firms—covering balance-sheet, income-statement, and administrative…

  4. Discussion and Working Paper // 2024

    Forceful or Persistent: How the ECB's New Inflation Target Affects Households' Inflation Expectations

    The ECB announced a new monetary policy strategy in July 2021. In contrast to the previous strategy of aiming at inflation close to, but below 2%, it now pursues a symmetric 2% inflation target over the medium…