FDI and Taxation - A Meta-Study

Despite the continuing political interest in the usefulness of tax competition and tax coordination as well as the wealth of theoretical analyses, it still remains open whether or when tax competition is harmful. Moreover, the influence of tax differentials on multinationals’ decisions is still insufficiently analyzed. Thus, economists have increasingly resorted to empirical analysis in order to gain insights on the elasticity of foreign direct investments (FDI) with respect to company taxation. As a result, the empirical literature on taxation and international capital flows has grown to a similar abundance during the last 25 years as the respective theoretical literature. Its heterogeneity leads to a rising need for concise reviews on the existing empirical evidence. In this paper we extend former meta-analyses on FDI and taxation in three ways. First, we add the most recent publications unconsidered in meta-analyses up-todate. Second, we apply a different methodology by using a broad set of meta-regression estimators and explicitly discuss which one is most suitable for application to our meta-data. Third, we address some important issues in research on FDI and taxation to the clarification of which meta-analysis can make valuable contributions. These issues are mainly: The influence of variables which might moderate effects of tax differentials (e.g. public spending), the implications of using aggregate FDI data as opposed to firm-level information on measured tax effects, the implications of bilateral effective tax rates, and the possible presence of publication bias in primary research. According to our meta-analysis, a pooled effect based on the median result taken from each primary study could be obtained that amounts to a semi-elasticity for company taxes on FDI (percentaged reaction of FDI to one percentage point change in the tax burden) of 1.68 in absolute terms. We do not find overwhelming support for publication bias in the meta-regressions. The use of aggregate data leads to higher estimated semi-elasticities, but significantly reduces t-values and thus implies less precise estimates. Regarding the choice of tax rates, unilateral effectiveaverage tax rates do not lead to significantly higher tax effect size estimates or significances as compared to the statutory rate. Bilateral tax rates best capture tax incentives and yield both significantly higher effect size estimates as well as higher significances. Regarding the control variables, it is most interesting that primary estimates are not significantly affected by the inclusion of public spending. This might be due to the fact that only crude measures of public inputs are used in many studies.

Feld, Lars and Jost Henrich Heckemeyer (2008), FDI and Taxation - A Meta-Study, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 08-128, Mannheim.