Impact Assessment of Various Policy Scenarios to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Passenger Cars

Within the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union has committed itself to substantial reductions in overall CO2 emissions. As an ongoing process, this commitment was broken down into sector and country specific reduction targets. As opposed to power plants and other stationary energy intensive production, the precise form of transport emission regulation is still subject to intensive debates. This project aimed at an integrated assessment of different policy scenarios on the following three levels: transport system, macroeconomic system and automotive market. For the impact analysis at the transport-sector level the model TREMOVE was used in mandatory. At the macroeconomic level, the dynamic general equilibrium model PACE-T was used to simulate the socio-economic impacts as well as the environmental impacts of the relevant regulation measures. The results of this project can be divided into two aspects. Firstly, the impact of different policy regulations on economic and transport indicators are small and depend on the expected implementation costs for the automotive industry to reduce CO2 emissions of passenger cars. Secondly, the impact of different CO2 reduction levels on the transport and economic indicators is small.

Bühler, Georg and Sabine Jokisch (2006), Impact Assessment of Various Policy Scenarios to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Passenger Cars, EU Komission DG Umwelt, Mannheim