Long-term prospects of CDM and JI

This study analyses whether Germany should use the flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol or whether it should continue to achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets by dint of domestic policies and measures. It estimates the future potential of the project-based Kyoto mechanisms (CDM and JI) and the impacts of its use on the German and the global economy, using an integrated-assessment model. In a Delphi survey, the expectations of international experts on the future prospects of the project-based Kyoto mechanisms are assessed. The study finishes with an analysis of options for promoting the use of the flexible mechanisms in Germany and concludes that the Federal Government of Germany should establish a project-based mechanisms fund of 25 to 50 million Kyoto units to cover the compliance uncertainties due to unexpected temperature or business cycle variations.

Cames, Martin, Niels Anger, Christoph Böhringer, Ralph Harthan and Lambert Schneider (2007), Long-term prospects of CDM and JI, Umweltbundesamt (UBA), Dessau