Nowcasting the Impact of Covid-19 on Education, Intergenerational Mobility and Earnings Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa

Using microsimulations, we nowcast the impact of learning losses caused by COVID-19 on secondary school completion rates, intergenerational mobility of education, and long-run earnings inequality in eight countries Sub-Saharan Africa. On average, secondary school completion rates decrease by 12 percentage points overall and by 16 points for children with low-educated parents. Interestingly, in most countries the gender gap diminishes because for men the projected decrease in secondary school completion is higher. However, a small additional impact on girls’ education due to the Covid-19 induced rise in teenage pregnancy is observed in some countries. Intergenerational mobility of education decreases from 1 to close to 50 percent, depending on the country. As a result of the heterogeneous reduction in average years of schooling for advantaged vs. disadvantaged children, earnings inequality could increase between one and four Gini points, depending on the assumptions.

Neidhöfer, Guido, Nora Lustig and Patricio Larroulet (2022), Nowcasting the Impact of Covid-19 on Education, Intergenerational Mobility and Earnings Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 22-022, Mannheim.