The Threat of Systemic Risk in Banking – Evidence for Europe

This paper attempts to answer the question whether the threat of systemic risk in banking exists only on a national or on a European level. Following De Nicolo and Kwast (2001), mean rolling-window correlations between bank stock returns are used as a measure for interdependencies among European banks, and hence for the systemic risk potential in Europe. National influences on stock returns are eliminated by estimating a return generating model. There is some evidence that interdependencies among European banks have increased over the past 15 years and that the potential of systemic risk has shifted from a national level to a European level.

Schüler, Martin (2002), The Threat of Systemic Risk in Banking – Evidence for Europe, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 02-21, Mannheim.