The role of fiscal policy for monetary decision making in the ECB – Empirical diagnosis and monitoring ECB transparency

The role of fiscal policy for monetary decision making in the ECB – Empirical diagnosis and monitoring ECB transparency

The ECB has become a significant fiscal actor through its bond-purchase programs, which commenced in 2010 and culminated in the 2022 decision regarding the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). The Governing Council of the ECB has justified these decisions, the majority of which were taken in the context of extraordinary crisis situations, in terms of monetary policy. However, these interventions in the markets for long-term euro government bonds are in conflict with the Maastricht monetary order and have prompted a debate regarding the extent to which fiscally motivated considerations of high sovereign debt could increasingly influence monetary policy decisions, potentially undermining the ECB's primary objective.

In light of the ongoing debate surrounding the potential risks of a fiscal dominance regime, this research project aims to achieve two key objectives: firstly, to advance scientific knowledge in this field, and secondly, to monitor transparency and communication from the ECB. The objective of this research project is twofold: firstly, to develop and implement innovative empirical research designs that can be used to measure the possible influence of fiscal developments on ECB monetary policy decisions; and secondly, to improve ECB transparency. The communicative objective is to establish an ECB Transparency Monitor, which employs contemporary digital communication tools to disseminate real-time information about the ECB and its decisions, justifications, background information, and scientific findings. This communication strategy aims to enhance the transparency of European monetary policy through the transfer of knowledge from an independent Leibniz research institute.

Project members

Friedrich Heinemann

Friedrich Heinemann

Project Coordinator
Head

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Carlo Moana Birkholz

Carlo Moana Birkholz

Researcher

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Jan Kemper

Jan Kemper

Researcher

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Peter Buchmann

Peter Buchmann

Technical employee

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Client/Allowance
Stiftung Geld und Währung, Frankfurt am Main, DE

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