Economic Sentiment for Switzerland Slightly Recovers
CH Indicator of Economic Sentiment
In September 2016, the ZEW-CS Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland rose by 5.5 points to a reading of 2.7 points. This is the first increase of the ZEW-CS Indicator after it had been falling for the last two months. As in the previous month, optimists and pessimists hold almost equal shares among the experts. When it comes to the current economic situation in Switzerland, however, experts are less positive in their evaluation than in the previous month: The corresponding indicator declined by 3.3 points to a level of 8.0 points.
The ZEW-CS Indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon. It is calculated monthly by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS), Zurich.
Despite its slight increase, the ZEW-CS Indicator remains close to zero. The share of respondents forecasting a positive economic development for the coming six months is only slightly higher than the share of experts expecting a negative development. 60 per cent of the experts expect the Swiss economy to remain unchanged in the coming six months. Given the latest figures on economic growth, this is rather surprising. In the second quarter of 2016, the real Swiss GDP rose by 0.6 per cent compared to the previous quarter, and by 2.0 per cent compared to the second quarter of 2015.
The expectations regarding the long-term interest rates in Switzerland have risen considerably in the current survey. The corresponding indicator climbed by 18.6 points to a level of 50.1 points. A majority of almost 53 per cent expect the long-term interest rates to rise. Against this backdrop, the expectations for the inflation rate have also seen an increase, with the respective indicator climbing by 16.6 points to a reading of 42.2 points. This means that the share of experts predicting a rising inflation rate greatly outweighs the share of respondents expecting the inflation rate to decrease.
Detailed Results
More detailed results – including survey participants' assessment of developments in other countries – can be found in this month's edition of the "Switzerland Financial market report".
For more information please contact
Markus Teske (ZEW), Phone +49 (0)621/1235-372, E-mail teske@zew.de
Lukas Gehrig (Credit Suisse), Phone +41 44 333 52 07, E-mail lukas.gehrig@credit-suisse.com