Falling Economic Expectations After Trump Victory

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany slightly declined in the November 2024 survey. At 7.4 points, it is 5.7 points below the previous month’s value. Assessments of the current economic situation in Germany are also increasingly pessimistic. The corresponding indicator fell 4.5 points and is now at minus 91.4 points.

“Economic expectations for Germany have been overshadowed by Trump’s victory and the collapse of the German government coalition. In the current survey, economic sentiment has declined – and the outcome of the US presidential election is likely to be the main reason for this. The fact that economic expectations for the USA are clearly rising, while economic sentiment for China and the eurozone is falling, supports this view. Still, more optimistic voices were heard in the last survey days, expecting economic prospects for Germany to improve with snap elections on the horizon. Overall, what we’re currently observing is a very dynamic development of economic expectations,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on the survey results.

The financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development in the eurozone experienced a decrease in November. At 12.5 points, the indicator lost 7.6 points compared to October. However, the assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone has hardly changed, with the situation indicator falling by 3.0 points to a new reading of minus 43.8 points.