TransportmarktBarometer ProgTrans/ZEW (Transport Market Barometer) – Capacity Constraints and Rising Costs Cause Partially Significant Increase of Transport Prices

The survey of the fourth quarter in 2006 suggests that the assessments of the price development are essentially marked by two assumptions. Due to the persistently good economic situation, the interviewed experts assume a considerable growth in volume, which will lead to partial capacity constraints in the individual transport industries and relations. On the other hand, they expect rising transport costs, in particular due to the increased lorry toll introduced on October 1, 2006, as well as the awaited increase of labour costs. However, the experts only detect occasional price-reducing effects by the competition with transport companies from other EU countries. According to the respondents, road and rail cargo will have to face particularly high price increases.

Regarding the development of transport volume, partially significant differences between the individual transport sectors can be noted. The forecasts concerning the development of the transport volume of courier consignments, express dispatches and package consignments (CEP services) as well as of air freight are rather cautious. Compared to the previous quarters, the experts expect, however, a significant growth in volume for rail freight and inland navigation. Concerning the other transport sectors, the majority of the experts estimates a further increase of the transport volume or a constantly high growth level.

The evaluations of the transport volumes regarding the individual transport relations hardly differ at the time being. Inland navigation, combined traffic, CEP shipments to and from Eastern Europe as well as air and sea transport within Europe display a slightly lower level than the remaining relations of these transport sectors. In terms of air and sea transport, the trade relations with the Asian/Pacific region still have the most promising outlook.