Stochastic Processes and Preferences
ZEW conducts evidence-based economic policy research on a range of high-visibility topics, including the digital transformation, European integration, and the energy transition.
These are tackled by ZEW’s research units.
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Pensions & Green FinancePensions and Sustainable Financial Markets
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DigitalisationDigital Economy
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HealthHealth Care Markets and Health Policy
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Innovation & FirmsEconomics of Innovation and Industrial Dynamics
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Market DesignMarket Design
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Society & InequalityInequality and Public Policy
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Taxes & Fiscal AffairsCorporate Taxation and Public Finance
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EnvironmentEnvironmental and Climate Economics
Current projects
Stochastic Processes and Preferences
This project intends to close a gap between empirical and theoretical capital market research. The stochastic processes for stock price developments that have so far been derived in theoretical research are only capable of describing the actual stock price developments in the international financial markets to a very limited extent. Empirical research has produced stochastic processes that describe reality much more accurately. However, so far a theoretical explanation for such stock price developments has been lacking. Therefore, this project aims at providing an economic foundation for stochastic processes. We intend to use theoretical models to derive processes which have statistical characteristics that are very similar to the stochastic processes used in empirical research. In the first stage of the analysis, we examine with the help of theoretical models how it is possible to describe the functional relationship between investors expectations and stock prices. From this, conclusions can be drawn regarding the extent to which statistical characteristics of stock price time series may be attributed to the expectations market participants formed. These theoretical links will be empirically verified in the course of our research. Later stages of the study will focus on the influence risk preference has on the stock returns.