Substantial Increase in Transport Volume Causes Growing Prices

In the coming six months, the demand for services of the German transport and loading industry will keep up its positive development owing to the favourable economic situation. Thus, partially appearing capacity constraints regarding the means of transport will persist in the near future. At the same time, energy prices and transport costs are expected to continue growing. These are the findings of the current ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a quarterly survey among 300 top executives from the transport and loading industry, conducted by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

The survey conducted in the third quarter of 2006 revealed that, according to the experts’ forecasts, two key determinants will influence the price development in the coming six months: a substantial growth in volume and the concurrent constraints regarding cargo space in individual transport branches and relations, as well as a re-intensified increase in energy costs and other cost factors. However, the price-reducing effect of competition in the transport sector caused by new EU member states will weaken.

Observing the different transport branches and relations, it can be noted that the majority of the questioned experts expect price increases in each branch – except for cross-border wagonload traffic by rail – and that the expectations of price increases are higher than in the previous quarter with the exception of European and Northern Atlantic air freight. On a six-month horizon, particularly high price increases are expected for German and western European road freight as well as for intercontinental air freight.

The estimated price development is highly influenced by the experts’ assessment of the expected transport volume in the coming six months. The forecasts on the development of transport volume regarding rail cargo and inland navigation are rather cautious. However, all other transport branches are expected to record increasing transport volumes or constantly high growth levels. Only combined traffic as well as courier, express and parcel consignments to and from Eastern Europe are viewed with certain scepticism.

At present, the development evaluations of the individual transport relations scarcely differ from one another. The relations regarding inland navigation with Eastern Europe, (German) road freight and intra-European sea freight range on a slightly lower level than in all other transport branches. Air and sea transport relations with the Asia/Pacific region continue booming.

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone: +41 61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler, E-mail: buehler@zew.de